CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-12-15T15:30:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 71216
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Dec 2017, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Dec 2017 until 18 Dec 2017)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Dec 2017  10CM FLUX: 072 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for
a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. A filament eruption near
25S 40E was observed in GONG H-alpha and SDO/AIA 304 A images around 12h UT
on December 15. An associated CME was detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 images
at 12:12 UT, with an estimated low speed of 284 km/s using COR2 A J-maps.
This CME may arrive at Earth (probability: 20%), in which case it should
arrive early on December 20 according to the drag based model. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed measured by DSCOVR suddenly increased from about 345 to
370 km/s around 21:30 UT on December 15. Afterwards, it gradually decreased
to current values around 340 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude ranged between
about 0.5 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
(K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the
past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December
16 and 17, with a slight chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K
Dourbes = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a
recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes

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